以太阳黑子和自相关因子为预测因子, 采用逐步回归分析方法, 建立杉木〔Cunninghamiala nceolata ( Lamb.) Hook .〕胸径生长的预测模型, 结果表明前 3 年和 8 年的太阳黑子相对数及前 5年杉木胸径生长的年轮指数值对杉木胸径生长存在正相关, 前 1 年和 4 年的太阳黑子相对数及前6 年和 7 年杉木胸径生长的年轮指数值对杉木胸径生长存在负相关, 该模型的模拟精度和预测精
度分别为 98.95 %和 98.45%, 且可提前 5 年进行预测, 为林木生长预测提供了新的系统分析方法。
 

The prediction model of breast diameter grow th about Cunninghamia lanceolata ( Lamb .)  Hook. was established by stepwise regression analy sis w ith the sun-pot and auto-correlated factors as forecast factors .The results showed that the sun-pot of three and eight years ago and the ring index of five years ago had positive effects on breast diameter grow th of Cunninghamia lanceolata , that the sun-pot of one and four years ago and the ring index of six and seven years ago had negative effects on breast diameter grow th of Cunninghamia lanceolata, that the simulating precision and forecasting accuracy of the model reached 98 .95 %and 98 .45 %respectively, and it could be send out the forecasting information five years ahead based on the model .This study would provide a new systematic analysis method for predicting tree growth .