根据日本落叶松〔Larix kaempferi （Lamb.） Carr.〕99个分布记录数据和19个气候变量，利用MaxEnt模型预测了日本落叶松在中国当前时期以及未来2个时期（2041年至2060年以及2061年至2080年）RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前时期日本落叶松的适宜区和高适宜区面积分别为35.59×10⁴和6.99×10⁴ km²，分别占研究区总面积的3.71％和0.73％。其中，高适宜区主要集中在“秦岭-大巴山区”和“辽东地区”，二者的面积占高适宜区总面积的85％以上。与当前时期相比，2041年至2060年以及2061年至2080年4种气候情景下日本落叶松的适宜区面积持续增加；RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下高适宜区面积均增加，而RCP2.6情景下高适宜区面积则减少。“秦岭-大巴山区”高适宜区总体表现为缩小趋势，且破碎化明显，而“辽东地区”高适宜区则有向东北方向移动的趋势，纬度向北移动了0.8°～4.5°，经度向东移动了0.9°～5.5°，吉林为高适宜区面积增加最大的省份。影响日本落叶松分布的主要气候变量为最热季降水量、温度季节变化、降水量季节变化和年平均温度，累计贡献率达90％以上。上述研究结果可为未来气候变化背景下日本落叶松的经营管理提供参考。

 Based on 99 distribution record data of Larix kaempferi （Lamb.） Carr. and 19 climatic variables， potential distribution areas of L. kaempferi in the current period and under the scenarios of RCP2.6， RCP4.5， RCP6.0， and RCP8.5 in two future periods （from 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080） were predicted by using MaxEnt model. The results show that the areas of suitable area and high suitable area of L. kaempferi in the current period are 35.59×10⁴ and 6.99×10⁴ km²， respectively， accounting for 3.71％ and 0.73％ of the total area of research area. In which， the high suitable area mainly distributes in “Qinling-Daba Mountain” and “Eastern Liaoning Province”， and their area accounts for more than 85％ of the total area of high suitable area. Compared with the current period， the area of suitable area of L. kaempferi increases continuously under four climate scenarios from 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080； the area of high suitable area all increases under the scenarios of RCP4.5， RCP6.0， and RCP8.5， while decreases under the scenario of RCP2.6. The high suitable area in “Qinling-Daba Mountain” shows a tendency to decrease in general as well as an obvious fragmentation， while that in “Eastern Liaoning Province” shows a tendency to move toward northeast （moving northward 0.8°-4.5° at latitude and moving eastward 0.9°-5.5° at longitude）， and the area increment of high suitable area in Jilin Province is the largest. Main climatic variables affecting the distribution of L. kaempferi are precipitation of the hottest quarter， temperature seasonality， precipitation seasonality， and annual mean temperature， and the accumulated contribution rate is greater than 90％. The above research results can provide reference for the management of L. kaempferi under future climate change background.