2019年10月17日 星期四
未来气候条件下裸果木在中国的潜在分布区研究
Study on potential distribution areas of Gymnocarpos przewalskii in China under future climatic conditions
2019年 第28卷 第3期 页码[51-57]
摘要

基于220个裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii Maxim.)分布点及12个气候因子,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS系统对影响裸果木潜在分布的主要气候因子进行了分析,并对2041年至2060年以及2061年至2080年RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候情景下裸果木在中国的潜在分布区进行了预测。结果表明:MaxEnt模型对未来气候条件下裸果木潜在分布区的预测结果非常好。影响裸果木分布的主要气候因子为年均降水量和最湿季降水量,二者贡献率之和基本高于50%,并且,在不同未来气候情境下年均降水量的贡献率基本高于30%。总体来看,在未来气候条件下,裸果木的适生区主要集中在新疆西部的阿克苏和阿合奇地区及新疆东部的哈密地区,内蒙古阿拉善西南部,青海海西地区中部,甘肃的嘉峪关大部、酒泉和张掖西北部。在2041年至2060年以及2061年至2080年,裸果木的总适生区面积均在RCP4.5气候情景下最大(分别为104.60×105和104.87×105 km2),并分别在RCP2.6和RCP8.5气候情景下最小(分别为90.81×105和94.11×105 km2)。研究结果显示:降水对裸果木分布的影响最大,其中,年均降水量是首要限制因子;与现代分布区相比,裸果木在未来气候条件下的适生区明显缩小,并逐渐向甘肃河西走廊水资源充足区域(包括甘肃的嘉峪关、张掖和酒泉等地)移动。

Abstract

Based on 220 distribution points of Gymnocarpos przewalskii Maxim. and 12 climatic factors, main climatic factors affecting potential distribution of G. przewalskii were analyzed by using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS system, and potential distribution areas of G. przewalskii in China under climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 during 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 were predicted. The results show that the prediction result of potential distribution areas of G. przewalskii under future climatic conditions  is excellent by using MaxEnt model. Main climatic factors affecting distribution of G. przewalskii are annual mean precipitation and precipitation of the wettest quarter, the sum of their contribution rate is basically higher than 50%, and the contribution rate of annual mean precipitation under different future climate scenarios is basically higher than 30%. In general, the suitable distribution areas of G. przewalskii are mainly distributed in Aksu and Aheqi areas in western Xinjiang and Hami area in eastern Xinjiang, southwestern Alashan in Inner Mongolia, central Haixi area in Qinghai, most of Jiayuguan, Jiuquan and northwestern Zhangye in Gansu. During 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, the areas of total suitable distribution areas of G. przewalskii are the largest under climate scenario of RCP4.5 with values of 104.60×105 and 104.87×105 km2, respectively, and are the smallest under climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with values of 90.81×105 and 94.11×105 km2, respectively. It is suggested that precipitation has the greatest influence on distribution of G. przewalskii, in which, annual mean precipitation is the primary limited factor. Compared with current distribution areas, suitable distribution areas of G. przewalskii under future climatic conditions reduce evidently, and gradually move to Hexi Corridor in Gansu with sufficient water resources (including Jiayuguan, Zhangye, and Jiuquan, etc. in Gansu).

关键词裸果木; MaxEnt模型; 潜在分布区; 适生区; 气候因子; 未来气候情景
Key wordsGymnocarpos przewalskii Maxim.; MaxEnt model; potential distribution area; suitable distribution area; climatic factor; future climate scenario
作者张佳琦1, 徐振朋2, 宛涛1, 蔡萍3, 伊卫东1
所在单位1. 内蒙古农业大学草原与资源环境学院, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010019;
2. 乌兰察布市农牧业科学研究院, 内蒙古 乌兰察布 012000; 3. 锡林郭勒职业学院, 内蒙古 锡林浩特 026000
点击量115
基金项目内蒙古自然科学基金资助项目(2016MS0324); 内蒙古自治区研究生科研创新项目(S20171012903)