对福建天宝岩国家级自然保护区4个猴头杜鹃（Rhododendron simiarum Hance）天然种群进行调查，分析了猴头杜鹃种群的龄级结构、静态生命表、存活曲线和死亡率曲线以及猴头杜鹃林稳定性，并用时间序列模型和动态指数预测猴头杜鹃种群的发展和演变。结果显示：4个猴头杜鹃种群属于增长型和稳定型，基径在2.5 cm及以下的幼苗个体数较多，中高龄级个体数少但分布较均匀。随着龄级的增加，猴头杜鹃种群的生命期望先升高后逐步降低，死亡率则先降低后逐步升高。猴头杜鹃种群的存活曲线大致符合Deevey-Ⅲ型。稳定性分析结果显示：仅猴头杜鹃纯林相对稳定，其他3个猴头杜鹃混交林均不稳定。时间序列预测结果和动态指数显示：猴头杜鹃种群呈现逐步增加、发展稳定的特征；未来中低龄级个体数明显增加，高龄级个体数无明显变化，但易受外部环境影响。总体上看，虽然福建天宝岩国家级自然保护区猴头杜鹃种群呈增长型和稳定型，且生存环境较为稳定，但种群整体面临激烈的生存竞争，幼苗存活率较低，种群结构略失衡。

Four natural populations of Rhododendron simiarum Hance in Tianbaoyan National Nature Reserve of Fujian were investigated， the age class structure， static life table， survival curve， and mortality rate curve of R. simiarum population and stability of R. simiarum forest were analyzed， and the time series model and dynamic index were used to predict the development and evolution of R. simiarum population. The results show that four R. simiarum populations belong to growth type and stable type， the individual number of seedlings with basal diameter at 2.5 cm or below is more， and those of middle and high age classes are less but their distribution are more even. With the increase of age class， the life expectancy of R. simiarum population increases first and then decreases gradually， while the mortality rate decreases first and then increases gradually. The survival curve of R. simiarum population is similar to Deevey-Ⅲ type. The result of stability analysis shows that only R. simiarum pure forest is relatively stable， and other three R. simiarum mixed forests are unstable. The time series prediction result and dynamic index show that R. simiarum population has the characteristics of gradual increase and stable development. In the future， the individual numbers of low and middle age classes increase obviously， and that of high age class has no obvious change， but it is vulnerable to the external environment. On the whole， although R. simiarum population in Tianbaoyan National Nature Reserve of Fujian belongs to growth type and stable type， and the living environment is relatively stable， the population as a whole is facing fierce competition， the survival rate of seedlings is low， and the population structure is slightly unbalanced.