利用树木年轮分析方法研究了西天目山的三种主要针叶树：柳杉、金钱松和黄山松在林分范围内的直径生长与气候因子的关系。用逐步回归分析建立生长指数与１３个气候因子的回归方程，然后将生长曲线加入回归方程获得估计胸高处直径生长量的模型。结果表明，显著影响柳杉直径生长指数的因素为前期生长和夏季气温；影响金钱松生长指数达显著水平的有前期生长和夏、秋两季降水量；显著影响黄山松生长指数的因素有前期生长、夏季气温和秋季降水量。如果未来气温比目前分别升高１℃、２℃和３℃，柳杉的直径生长量将增加３．２％、６．３％和１１．１％；金钱松的将增加３．７％、５．６％和７．４％；黄山松的将增加３．５％、７．１％和１１．８％。文中对影响直径生长的其他因素也进行了讨论。 

Relationship between diameter growth of three local main coniferous species, Cryptomeria fortunei(Cf), Pseudolarix amabilis (Pa) and Pinus paiwanensis(Pt) , and climate factors were studied in the scale of a stand by using tree ring analysis. The regression equations were established between growth indices and 13 climate factors by step regression analysis, and then they were converted into the estimated models of diameter growth rate at breast height by combining with the growth curves. The effects of future climate change on the diameter growth were predicted by the models. The results showed that the growth indices of Cf were influenced significantly by the previous growth and summer temperature; the indices of Pa were influenced mainly by the prior growth, summer and autumn precipitation; for Pt' s indices, prior growth, summer temperature and autumn precipitation had important influence on them. If future temperature rises above 1 C , 2 C , 3 C. respectively, the increased percents of the diameter growth rate of the species are expected to be 3. 2%, 6.3% and 11. 1% for Cf, and 3.7%, 5.6% and 7. 4% for Paand 3.5%. 7. 1% and 11.8% for Pt. The other factors influencing diameter growth were discussed also.