江苏溧阳的马尾松（Pinus massoniana Lamb）年轮年表与当地农作物产量间关系的分析表明，作物产量的波动系数可用马尾松年轮年表前一年年轮指数的非线性回归方程来描述，根据该回归方程计算的过去１１６年的作物产量系数与有关气象灾害文献的历史记载相吻合；同时发现该作物产量系数具一定的周期，因此采用滑动自回归（ＡＲＭ）模型对未来１０年（１９９１～２０００年）作物产量的波动情况进行了预测。 

The relationships between the tree ring chronology of Pinus massoniana and local crop yield were analyzed by nonlinear step regression model. The estimated yield indices calculated from the model for past 116 years were matched with historical meteonology records, they also showed particular cycle in some degree. The yield indices were modeled successfully by the ARMA, by which the yield indices for the future 10 years ( 1991 - 2000) were forecasted.