基于黄山花楸（Sorbus amabilis Cheng ex Yü）24条现代有效分布记录和9个生物气候变量，利用MaxEnt模型和GIS技术探讨了黄山花楸的现代地理分布特征和潜在分布区，评估了制约黄山花楸潜在地理分布的主要气候因子，并对RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下2050年和2070年的黄山花楸适宜分布范围及其变化进行了预测。结果表明：黄山花楸水平分布在北纬24°57′～31°19′、东经109°01′～120°17′，其现代地理分布呈现狭域和间断的特点。与整个研究区面积相比，现代气候条件下黄山花楸总适生区面积所占比例为12.00％，主要分布在安徽南部、浙江东南部、福建东南部、湖北西南部、重庆东南部和北部以及台湾东北部；影响其现代潜在地理分布的主导生物气候变量为温度（平均日温差、最暖季均温和年均温）和降水（年降水量和最暖季降水量），且温度较降水的影响更大。未来4种气候情景下，黄山花楸不同等级适生区的面积均较现代适生区的面积有不同程度的减小，且整体上看适生区有向高海拔区域迁移的趋势；与未来其他3种气候情景相比，2050年RCP4.5气候情景下的异常程度最高；年降水量、最暖季降水量和平均日温差可能是导致黄山花楸适生区发生变化的重要气候因子。上述研究结果可为黄山花楸种质资源管理和保护提供有价值的参考。

Based on 24 current valid distribution records and 9 bioclimatic variables of Sorbus amabilis Cheng ex Yü， its current geographical distribution characteristics and potential distribution area were explored by using MaxEnt model and GIS technology， and main climate factors restricting its potential geographical distribution were evaluated. Meanwhile， suitable distribution range of S. amabilis and its variation in 2050 and 2070 were predicted under climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that S. amabilis is horizontally distributed in north latitude of 24°57′-31°19′ and east longitude of 109°01′-120°17′， and its current geographical distribution shows narrow and discontinuous characteristics. Compared with the area of whole research area， percentage of area of total suitable area of S. amabilis is 12.00％ under current climatic condition， and S. amabilis mainly distributes in southern Anhui， southeastern Zhejiang， southeastern Fujian， southwestern Hubei， southeastern and northern Chongqing， and northeastern Taiwan； main bioclimate variables affecting its current potential geographical distribution are temperature （mean diurnal range of temperature， mean temperature of the warmest quarter， and annual mean temperature） and precipitation （annual precipitation and precipitation of the warmest quarter）， and the effect of temperature is greater than that of precipitation. Under four future climate scenarios， areas of suitable areas of S. amabilis at different classes decrease with different degrees compared with those of current suitable area， and the suitable area shows a tendency to transfer to higher altitude area in general； compared with other three future climate scenarios， the anomaly degree in 2050 under the climate scenario of RCP4.5 will be the highest; annual precipitation， precipitation of the warmest quarter， and mean diurnal range of temperature may be the important climate factors leading to change in suitable area of S. amabilis. The research results above mentioned can provide valuable information for management and conservation of germplasm resource of S. amabilis.