为了揭示乌溪江流域山蜡梅（Chimonanthus nitens Oliv.）野生种群的生存现状和受干扰程度，对浙江省遂昌县乌溪江流域天然林和干扰林中山蜡梅种群的结构特征、动态指数、静态生命表、存活曲线、死亡率曲线和消失率曲线进行分析，并进行生存分析和时间序列预测。结果表明：天然林中，山蜡梅种群结构为增长型；各径级的个体数和标准化个体存活数随径级增加而减少，生命期望总体上随径级增加而下降；存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型中的B1亚型，死亡率曲线和消失率曲线均呈双峰型，2个峰值分别出现在Ⅱ级〔1.5 cm＜基径（BD）≤2.0 cm〕和Ⅵ级（3.5 cm＜BD≤4.0 cm）；从生存率函数看，该山蜡梅种群具有幼龄期锐减、中龄期稳定、老龄期快速衰减的特点；经过2、4、6个径级时间后，天然林中山蜡梅种群各径级的个体数量逐渐增多。干扰林中，山蜡梅种群结构为稳定型，Ⅰ级（BD≤1.5 cm）和Ⅱ级的生命期望明显高于其他径级，存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅰ型，Ⅰ级至Ⅳ级（2.5 cm＜BD≤3.0 cm）的死亡率和消失率呈现负值；从生存率函数看，干扰林中山蜡梅种群具有幼龄期递增、中龄期递减、老龄期衰退的特点；预测结果显示：在山蜡梅种群的小径级个体未得到及时补充的情况下，随着时间推移，种群存在全面衰退的风险。整体来看，乌溪江流域山蜡梅种群结构仍为增长型。目前，该区域山蜡梅种群受干扰程度尚在其耐受阈值内，但若不及时采取保护措施，势必对种群发展造成不利影响。建议采取原地保护、人工播种或补植实生苗及建立种质资源保存库等方式加强对该区域山蜡梅种群的保护和管理，促进其种群自然更新和种群恢复。

To reveal the survival status and disturbance degree of wild population of Chimonanthus nitens Oliv. in Wuxijiang River Basin, structure pattern, dynamic index, static life table, survival curve, mortality rate curve, and vanishing rate curve of C. nitens population in natural forest and disturbance forest in Wuxijiang River Basin in Suichang County of Zhejiang Province were analyzed, and survival analysis and time sequence prediction were conducted. The results show that in natural forest, the population structure of C. nitens is growth type; the individual number and standardized survival number of individuals of each diameter class decrease with the increase of diameter class, and the life expectancy decreases with the increase of diameter class in general; the survival curve tends to B1 subtype of Deevey-Ⅱ type, the mortality rate curve and vanishing rate curve both show bimodal pattern, and the two peak values appear at Ⅱ 〔1.5 cm＜basal diameter （BD）≤2.0 cm〕 and Ⅵ （3.5 cm＜BD≤4.0 cm） classes, respectively; from the survival rate function, this C. nitens population has the characteristics of sharp decline in the early stage, stable in the middle stage, and rapid decline in the late stage; after two, four, and six diameter class time, the individual number of each diameter class of C. nitens population in natural forest gradually increases. In disturbance forest, the population structure of C. nitens is stable type, the life expectancy of Ⅰ （BD≤1.5 cm） and Ⅱ classes is evidently higher than that of the other diameter classes, the survival curve tends to Deevey-Ⅰ type, and the mortality rate and vanishing rate of Ⅰ to Ⅳ （2.5 cm＜BD≤3.0 cm） classes are negative; from the survival function, the C. nitens population in disturbance forest has the characteristics of progressive increase in the early stage, progressive decrease in the middle stage, and decline in the late stage; the prediction result shows that in the case of small diameter class individuals in C. nitens population not supplemented in time, the population has a risk of total decline over time. Overall, the population structure of C. nitens in Wuxijiang River Basin is still growth type. At present, the disturbance degree of C. nitens population in this area is within the tolerance threshold, but if conservation measures are not taken timely, the development of the population will be adversely affected. It is suggested to take measures such as in situ conservation, artificial seeding or replanting seedlings, and construction of germplasm resources preservation bank to strengthen the conservation and management of C. nitens population in this area, and promote the natural regeneration and population recovery of C. nitens population.