陆地生态系统的年净第一性生产力（ＮＰＰ）是每年植物通过光合作用固定的碳总量。随着全球变化的发生，ＮＰＰ发生相应的变化。传统的方法预测ＮＰＰ的变化是利用气候和植被之间的局地关系建立回归模型，但用此方法预测ＮＰＰ的变化是有条件的。目前国际上出现了一种陆地生态系统的动态模型（ＴＥＭ），它考虑了植物营养元素如氮的有效性，同时利用不同ＧＣＭｓ模型预测的气候因子的变化值和全球变化模拟研究的实验数据，预测全球ＮＰＰ的可能变化及区域分布。本文试就这一模型的基本参数组成、研究结果以及国内外在ＮＰＰ对全球变化的响应方面开展的研究做一简要介绍。

Annual net primary production (NPP) is the net amount of carbon captured by terrestrial plants through photosynthesis each year. Global climate changes are expected to affect NPP of the world's ecosystems. Traditional methods for evaluating responses of NPP to global change are by means of regression-based model, which use empirically derived relationships between climate and NPP. But these kinds of methods are limited in use when the regressions are not appropriate for climate conditions that are novel to terrestrial ecosystems. Nowadays there appears a new model called the proccess-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which considers the important ecosystem processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition and nutrient cycling, especially the nitrogen efficiency. By applying the output from different general circulation models (GCMs), TEM could objectively predict the change and distribution of NPP in the world when global change occures. The basic method and results of TEM, together with some developings towards the research of response of NPP to global change, are briefly introduced in this paper.